electoral college
i read the other day about how most top-echelon Democrats are confident of a Bush defeat in November. I share the high hopes, yet I can't comprehend the optimism. I did some calculation of the electoral votes, and John Kerry has a lot to do to win the election.
First, Kerry has to win Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa - three states which Gore won by scarcely 2%. Then he has to carry the two big electoral states: Pennsylvania and Ohio. The most recent poll has Kerry edging Bush in Pennsylvania by within the sample error, and Kerry is trailing Bush in Ohio by 9 points. If Kerry loses both, he's 31 votes short. And dead.
If Kerry splits on Wisconsin and Minnesota, and splits Ohio-Pennsylvania, he then has 21 votes to capture. Also dead.
Let's say Kerry wins Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa, and splits on Ohio-Pennsylvania. He's then 11 votes shy. If he wins one of the Dakotas, or he wins New Hampshire, Kerry has 8 to go. Washington has 10 votes, Louisiana has 9, Colorado has 9, and Arkansas has 6; of these states, only in Washington that Kerry has a legitimate chance. Even this scenario is stretching the limits of possibility.
The other supposedly swing states are, in my estimation, a foregone conclusion. Florida will remain in the Bush column. Arizona, Missouri and Georgia will vote Republican. Michigan is definitely going Democrat, and so are New Mexico and Oregon.
On election day, look for New Hampshire to offer the first electoral drama. Voting there closes at 6pm ET and by 7pm, at 30+% precinct count, the networks should be able to project a winner. Then the Pennsylvania results will start trickling in, and a defeat here will make the loser's heart drop. After that will be the results in Iowa, Wisconsin and Ohio. Soon after, the projections in Louisiana, Arkansas and Colorado will follow. This, around 10pm ET, is when the 2004 election results will hinge.
It's going to be a fairly close election early on, and an exciting one. But I think Bush will win by at least 10. Bets, anybody?
First, Kerry has to win Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa - three states which Gore won by scarcely 2%. Then he has to carry the two big electoral states: Pennsylvania and Ohio. The most recent poll has Kerry edging Bush in Pennsylvania by within the sample error, and Kerry is trailing Bush in Ohio by 9 points. If Kerry loses both, he's 31 votes short. And dead.
If Kerry splits on Wisconsin and Minnesota, and splits Ohio-Pennsylvania, he then has 21 votes to capture. Also dead.
Let's say Kerry wins Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa, and splits on Ohio-Pennsylvania. He's then 11 votes shy. If he wins one of the Dakotas, or he wins New Hampshire, Kerry has 8 to go. Washington has 10 votes, Louisiana has 9, Colorado has 9, and Arkansas has 6; of these states, only in Washington that Kerry has a legitimate chance. Even this scenario is stretching the limits of possibility.
The other supposedly swing states are, in my estimation, a foregone conclusion. Florida will remain in the Bush column. Arizona, Missouri and Georgia will vote Republican. Michigan is definitely going Democrat, and so are New Mexico and Oregon.
On election day, look for New Hampshire to offer the first electoral drama. Voting there closes at 6pm ET and by 7pm, at 30+% precinct count, the networks should be able to project a winner. Then the Pennsylvania results will start trickling in, and a defeat here will make the loser's heart drop. After that will be the results in Iowa, Wisconsin and Ohio. Soon after, the projections in Louisiana, Arkansas and Colorado will follow. This, around 10pm ET, is when the 2004 election results will hinge.
It's going to be a fairly close election early on, and an exciting one. But I think Bush will win by at least 10. Bets, anybody?
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