electoral college part 2: final stretch
here we go: a week's left before the national election. it's the final stretch, the late scramble, the longest yard.
i stand by my earlier election prediction. i think Bush is going to win, barring any late miracle by Kerry, which could yet happen. i still think the election will pivot on a handful of midwestern states - Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin. latest updates: Kerry's barely leading in PA, trailing in Ohio, and badly lagging in WI.
As for the other swing states, Florida is on the lips of many political pundits, though for the life of me i don't see how. Third of a million more registered Democrats in Florida, and Kerry's still behind a point. it'd take a very very heavy voter turnout amongst the latino and the black and the senior citizen community for Kerry to snatch Florida into his column, and i don't see that happening.
Missouri's going Bush, so's Arkansas and Tennessee and Arizona and West Virginia. Washington (state) looks to go Kerry, thank god, and so's New Hampshire and New Mexico. Colorado could be the spoiler, though. if CO's electoral college reform referendum is approved, which i don't think it will, the state may split 4-5 Kerry. any votes would help, clearly.
the latest national polls varyingly put Bush 4 to 5 points ahead of Kerry, among likely voters, to an even 48-48% in some other polls. Bush has the solid support of 91% of republican voters (three out of four of these republicans, incidently, still stubbornly believe that there's WMD somewhere out there in Iraq, these in-denial people), and Kerry carries only 86% of the democratic group. good news for Kerry? half of those who didn't vote the last cycle very much intend to vote this year, half of whom are still not considered likely voters, and this group overwhelmingly favors Kerry 60-40. the crop of new voters, the youth votes, if they actually turn out to vote, also lean towards Kerry. IF they actually get up their lazy asses and vote.
the race now hinges on the votes of the undecideds, these fence-sitters, these mugwumps, a sliver of about a few hundred thousand electorate who'd usually decide once they get to the voting booth. Kerry's doing a frenetic campaigning to win these votes, mostly in Ohio Wisconsin Florida. Bush seems to not mind these swing voters much, focusing more on his conservative base instead. two different political strategies, how interesting.
Again, as i've noted months before, for Kerry to win he has to first carry Pennsylvania. then comes Wisconsin. then comes Ohio. lose any of these, and sayonara bhubbye seeya. winning NH, WA, NM and IA would be moot. now if Florida does a dramatic turnaround and ekes out Kerry's way - and i'm praying hard for this - Kerry could afford to lose WI long as he holds either PA or OH.
i think barely 53 percent of voters will vote. as it stands, i think Bush will win between 285 to 291 electoral college votes (271 clinches the presidency).
i'm depressed, but i'm hoping hard for a miracle.
i stand by my earlier election prediction. i think Bush is going to win, barring any late miracle by Kerry, which could yet happen. i still think the election will pivot on a handful of midwestern states - Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin. latest updates: Kerry's barely leading in PA, trailing in Ohio, and badly lagging in WI.
As for the other swing states, Florida is on the lips of many political pundits, though for the life of me i don't see how. Third of a million more registered Democrats in Florida, and Kerry's still behind a point. it'd take a very very heavy voter turnout amongst the latino and the black and the senior citizen community for Kerry to snatch Florida into his column, and i don't see that happening.
Missouri's going Bush, so's Arkansas and Tennessee and Arizona and West Virginia. Washington (state) looks to go Kerry, thank god, and so's New Hampshire and New Mexico. Colorado could be the spoiler, though. if CO's electoral college reform referendum is approved, which i don't think it will, the state may split 4-5 Kerry. any votes would help, clearly.
the latest national polls varyingly put Bush 4 to 5 points ahead of Kerry, among likely voters, to an even 48-48% in some other polls. Bush has the solid support of 91% of republican voters (three out of four of these republicans, incidently, still stubbornly believe that there's WMD somewhere out there in Iraq, these in-denial people), and Kerry carries only 86% of the democratic group. good news for Kerry? half of those who didn't vote the last cycle very much intend to vote this year, half of whom are still not considered likely voters, and this group overwhelmingly favors Kerry 60-40. the crop of new voters, the youth votes, if they actually turn out to vote, also lean towards Kerry. IF they actually get up their lazy asses and vote.
the race now hinges on the votes of the undecideds, these fence-sitters, these mugwumps, a sliver of about a few hundred thousand electorate who'd usually decide once they get to the voting booth. Kerry's doing a frenetic campaigning to win these votes, mostly in Ohio Wisconsin Florida. Bush seems to not mind these swing voters much, focusing more on his conservative base instead. two different political strategies, how interesting.
Again, as i've noted months before, for Kerry to win he has to first carry Pennsylvania. then comes Wisconsin. then comes Ohio. lose any of these, and sayonara bhubbye seeya. winning NH, WA, NM and IA would be moot. now if Florida does a dramatic turnaround and ekes out Kerry's way - and i'm praying hard for this - Kerry could afford to lose WI long as he holds either PA or OH.
i think barely 53 percent of voters will vote. as it stands, i think Bush will win between 285 to 291 electoral college votes (271 clinches the presidency).
i'm depressed, but i'm hoping hard for a miracle.
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