poker and math: how i play NL Hold'em poker
(first, a disclaimer: i am not a poker pro, nor am i a poker expert. that being said, i do play weekly cash game poker regularly with the boys, and i do play plenty of online poker tournaments, and i do read plenty of NLHE poker books. so my ideas here are my own, based on my personal understanding of the poker math. so take it with a grain worth of salt, what will you, or agree/disagree with them. note: i assume in this article that you already know that BB is big blind, s=suited, o=offsuit and what pot odds and implied odds are. also, for the math-befuddled, an explanation: 10% and 1-in-10 and 1:9 and 9-to-1 underdog are all the same thing.)
poker is gambling, yes - and no. there are many elements involved in poker - the opponents, the tells, the bets, the raises, the bluffs, the mind games - all of which makes it an exciting game, but poker is also about the math. this is what differentiates poker and straight gambling, such as lottery. sure, there is an element of luck in poker. after all, a coin flip is a coin flip, whichever way the coin lands. but poker math plays an important role in determining a poker play. sometimes the lady luck casts bad beats on you, but most times with the correct poker math play, you will actually profit in the long run.
speaking of coin flips, here an illustration: let's say i flip a coin and you call head and bet $1. if you are correct, you win $1 profit. if you're wrong, you lose your $1 bet. in poker betting parlance, this is called a 1 to 1 odds, or bet $1 to win $1, or 50% money odds.
now the coin flip has 50/50 chance, i.e. 50% odds, of landing either head or tail. if i flip the coin 100 times and you call head all 100 times, chances are the coin will land on head 50 times. which means that you will win 50 times and win $50, but lose 50 times and lose $50. put it differently, you will only break even.
side note: of course, in the real world, the result won't be as neat as 50-50. the result will, however, be close to 50-50; maybe as far as 45-55. if you don't believe me, flip a coin 100 times and see for yourself. in statistics (for you poker players who slept during Stat 101 class), this is called standard deviation and variance.
understanding all these, will you still play the $1 bet to win $1? surely i hope not, because it doesn't make much sense for you to play the $1 bet each coin flip since you are entering a 50% flip odds with a 50% money odds so you will only likely get even money or only win a little, or lost a little, on your bets in the long run.
now let's do this: if you are correct in calling the coin flips, your $1 bet will win $10, in other words a 10-to-1 odds. again, according to the math, in the long run if you keep betting on heads in all 100 coin flips, the likely result will be 50 heads, which will earn you $500. the other 50 times you're wrong, you only lose $50. will you play? hellz to da yeah.
i keep underlining "in the long run" because it's very important in poker. the math breaks down if i were to offer you ONLY ONE coin flip. but alas, poker is all about the bigger picture. your AA will win heads up against KK 82% of the time. AA is a 89%-11% favorite against 72o. sure you'd steam like crazy when your pocket aces got cracked, because guess what?, there is still 18% chance against KK and 11% against the measly 72o that your aces will still lose. but, again, the magic words: "in the long run", you will profit playing AA. so don't get tilted. dat shit cray wtf, but shit happens - mathematically.
(i will say though, if you still hang on to AA after the board shows, for instance, a likely flush for your opponent, then you deserve the stupid loss. i know it's aces, but when you're beat you're beat. here's a tip: a good fold is as important in poker as getting good cards. fold that shit, bro.)
so this is how poker differs from straight gambling. with the combination of pot odds, implied odds, betting patterns, betting sizes, opponent's ranges, opponent's tells, &etc, you can cobble together a fairly accurate estimation of whether you are winning or losing and proceed from there.
so let's proceed here, shall we? this is how i approach NL Hold'em poker math:
one in (about) nine
when you are dealt a pocket pair, there's a 10.5% chance of you hitting a set - i.e. three-of-kind - or better on the flop. that's about 1 in 9, or 8-to-1 odds.
(actually it's 1 in 9.5 or 8.5:1, but for simplicity sake, let's make it 1 in 9. also, i did say hit a set or better on the flop. the odds of flopping only a set is 11.76% or 7.5-to-1. also, in this discussion, i'm focusing only on the flop and not turn+river. but for those interested, the odds of making a set going to the river, after missing the flop, is about 8%.)
anyway, that means you will have to consider the pot odds before playing those small-to-mid pocket pairs in order to profit off the set in the long run. for instance, if the BB is $1, you need to see at least $8 already in the pot from the limpers to justify putting your $1 in. all poker pros and all poker books i've read advocate this line of thinking.
the reason is math. there's a 1 in 9 chance of you making a set. put it differently, in the nine times you are dealt with small pocket pair, you'll likely hit a set only once. let's say in a $1 BB game you get small pocket pairs nine times and you limp in $1 every time.eight of those times you will miss your set, and likely lose to whatever, so you fold. you just lost $8. the one time you hit a set, you better win the $8 back or else you end up losing money in total playing the small pair. that's why you need the 8:1 pot odds ratio.
of course, the real reason of set-mining is the huge implied odds. most poker players play small pocket pairs, even though the pot odds is smaller than 8:1, because the set is well-disguised that opponents with top pair top kicker or two pairs will bet aggressively on the flop+turn+river, thus earning profit at the end. poker pros even suggest be willing to call up to 7BB raise with small pocket pairs because of the implied odds factor.
notice that i mentioned you hit your set one time out of nine. i didn't mention which of the nine. your set could hit the first time you are dealt the pair, or the fifth time, or the ninth time. so here is where i primarily differ with the opinions of poker professionals. (again, they are the pro, not me - so, a thousand apologies.)
let's talk math statistics some more for a moment. again, using the coin flip as an example, the coin will land 50 times on heads/tails after 100 flips. the coin will not land head, then tail, then head, then tail, then head-tail-head-tail-head-tail and so on. the real world doesn't operate as tidy as that. in total, yes, 100 coin flips will go 50-50. but it may go 5 heads in a row, it may go 10 tails in a row, but in the long run, it evens out to 50-50.
here's my point: if i flip the coin 100 times, and holy fuck the coin lands on heads-heads-heads 50 times in a row (not very likely, i know, but stay with me here) then you better start betting on tails the next 50 times. because, in the long run, it will even out to 50-50.
going back to the 1 in 9 chance of hitting a set, let's say i am dealt pocket deuces 9 times. let's also say i won't play it and muck the 2-2 preflop the first 7 times. i keep noticing that in those seven times i folded, the set didn't hit at all, had i played the deuces. knowing this, will i play 2-2 the next two times, even if i get raised into?
you betcha. because the math indicates that a set will hit very soon.
in online NLHE tournaments, especially when i'm playing tight in the early rounds, i will fold these small pairs (unless i can limp in, knowing i won't be raised by the tight players on my left, or if i'm calling min-raise from the big blind) and i will pay attention to see if my trips would've otherwise hit on the flop. if none did several times, then i'll start playing those baby pairs coz a set is comin' baby! i'm good enough a poker player that i can go deep in a tournament, which means that i get to see plenty of hands and will be dealt more than nine pocket pairs per tournament to wait for set-mining opportunities.
in a nutshell, hitting a set is not easy. 10.5% is a very small number. 89.5% of the time you will miss the set. it often surprises my poker buddies when i fold pocket pair preflop out of position. the way i see it, i save money folding the small-to-mid pocket pairs because i'm not chasing the set yet, which is the only reason to play those. sure, i'm might sometimes miss the set, but i'll take my chances.
in conclusion, if you play those itty-bitty pairs to hit a set, count to nine. that's the magic number.
(it still needs to be said, again, that just because you hit your set that one time out of nine, it still doesn't mean you've already won the pot. a flush can beat you, so can a straight, and so on. be aware of the flop/board texture and the your opponent's bet/behavior. Daniel Negreanu in WSOP 2012 Main Event held pocket aces and flopped trip aces, and lost to a nut straight. your set can also be beaten by a higher set, which sucks big fat balls, but that only happens once in 167 times. moral of the story: if you go to an all-in war with a set on the flop, know there's still a tiny itsy-bitsy window that your set will get crushed, so be brave and go on clashing heads, and if you lose, then it's just not your day. but if you slowplay the set all the way to the river and the board shows likely straight or flush, then you must consider very carefully if your trips are beaten.)
one in three (plus one in nine)
you will be dealt suited cards about once every four times (24%). not saying ace-high suited cards, not saying suited connectors - just any two random suited cards. just because you get ace suited cards, try not to get too excited coz you get random suited cards once out of four times anyway, the ace is just bonus.
for those of you interested in playing for the flush, here are the numbers:
so every time you get suited cards, remember the numbers: 9 and 3. one in nine to flop a flush draw, one in three of those draws to complete the flush.
i play suited cards in a, well, calculated manner. i'm aiming for the big flush after all, so i'll play an Axs or Kxs if it's cheap to enter the pot. i will also play suited connectors for the flush and straight possibilities, again if it's cheap. AKs is a raising hand anyway simply because of its strength. if i'm entering to steal the pot with (possibly high and/or painted) suited cards raises because i sense weakness, then i'm relying on pre/postflop play to out-muscle my opponent, and not necessarily to hit draws, although flopping the draws would be a nice bonus. but, for example, if i see that my folded 72s actually hit a four-card flush draw, and for the love of god the flush actually completes at river/turn, then i can fairly much surmise that i won't hit flush in the next 100+ hands and so i will fold those Ace-rag suited the rest of the night.
(again, just because flush hit... yada yada... that doesn't mean... yada yada.. you get it.)
one in two
a pair versus connected overcards has nearly 50-50 chance, or one in two, that it is virtually a coin-flip. it's a race that you will often see in poker tournaments, especially at final tables. an AKs vs 7-7 is a 49%-51% race; AKo is a slightly worse 46% dog against 7-7's 54%.
try this experiment at home: give yourself an AKs and your imaginary heads-up opponent a 7-7, then run the flop turn river 100 times. you will see what a coin flip this is, and that the result will be close to 49-51. (or if you're lazy, then run it 20 times and you'll see that 7-7 holds up about 11 times out of 20. also note: if you give your self AKs and your opponent a QQ then the QQ will likely win a little more than 51% of the time simply because the queens take away your outs to complete a broadway.)
if you recall the set-mining discussion above, the same idea follows: if i'm holding small/mid-pair and i noticed the high overcards at the table have manage to hit the board a few times already, then i won't mind raising preflop or shoving with my pair. vice-versa, if pocket underpairs have been holding up and win a few times in a row, i am fairly confident that my AK will hit the board and i will push/call all-in. i will do this especially when i see tight small stacks moving all in, knowing that they will likely shove with a mid pair or any ace.
in poker tournaments, as the saying goes, you need to win one of these race. so go in when the math leans on your side.
one in three (or two in three, whichever way you see it)
when you are dealt any unpaired hole cards, you will flop at least a pair 32.4% (or 1 in 3) of the time. what that means is that one time out of three you will hit something on the flop. for example, you could play 72o and paired your deuces. but more importantly, though, it also means that 2 times out of 3, you will miss the flop.
and here's another important fact: your opponent also has a 2 times in 3 of drawing blank on the flop. just because he raised you preflop, it doesn't mean he connected at the flop. remember this.
also note that you need to only raise (assuming standard 2.5BB raise) and win uncontested pot two times out of three to profit. for example, in a $2 BB game, if you raise to $5 twice and everybody folds, you win $6 ($2 BB and $1 SB twice each). the third time you raise $5 and fold to someone's reraise, that nets you a $1 profit. remember this, especially when you are at a tight table.
this is why position is important in poker. of course, if you are the player to act first, you can fire a probe bet or a c-bet or check-raise to see where you are, but the information is easier (and cheaper) gathered when you are the last to act. but you know this already, you poker savvy you.
but here is where i interpret the 1-in-3 rule in a another different way: the odds of my opponent being dealt any pocket pair is about 6%, the odds of him being dealt suited cards is 24%. so about 1 in 3 times my opponent will get attractive hands he wants to play with, but 2 out of 3 hands he will get lousy hole cards and muck them.
so i pay close attention to the two or three players behind (or left of) me and the two players before me. when i have the button/cut-off position, i will be interested to see if/how the small and big blinds play their hands. if they do play, i will hazard a guess that in the next orbit they will most probably get bad cards, so i'll raise them with any two cards if nobody else raise. same goes when i have the big blind and i see the button limping or raising a likely valid raise/reraise (not position raise) then i'll target him the next time around. in both situation, if they call my raise, i will keep in mind that 2 out 3 times they won't connect anyway.
the bad news is this method helps only in playing against tight-passive players and there're no raises prior to your action. loose-agg players are just too goddamn unpredictable and they seem to always enter the pot. but the good news is most players are tight passive players and the loose-aggressives will back down when you push back if you can catch some good spots (and cards).
one in whatever
i usually give myself a handicap of one bad beat per poker game. bad beat means bad beat. it means my flush loses to a higher flush or boat. it means my trip aces are cracked, or my straight gets busted. my AKs missing the board isn't a bad beat. it's fucked up bad luck is what it is, but it's a coin flip that loses. if my top pair top kicker gets spanked, that isn't a bad beat.
bad beat is when your opponent is drawing to one or two outs against your very strong hand, and he still catches it. of course i'd be upset, but i try not to tilt. if you recall, AA against 72o is still only has 11% of getting cracked. losing those strong hands sucks, but you know what, i know the rest of night i'm likely safe from horrendous bad beats.
this is why i usually play small ball poker in early rounds of poker games. when i get a bad beat, i will only lose minimum. after that, knowing a bad beat is likely gone and be done with, i'l start betting aggressively for maximum profit.
final thoughts: my method of poker relies heavily, of course, on being able to at least see the flop - which is an available option at my weekly poker games. in online tournaments, however, especially in very early and very late stages, there are often all-in shoves with no calls and i don't get to see the flop. so i have to make an educated guess as to whether, for instance, my pair hit a set or not. (likely not, but we'll never know.)
and these, humbly, are the ways of my poker play.
poker is gambling, yes - and no. there are many elements involved in poker - the opponents, the tells, the bets, the raises, the bluffs, the mind games - all of which makes it an exciting game, but poker is also about the math. this is what differentiates poker and straight gambling, such as lottery. sure, there is an element of luck in poker. after all, a coin flip is a coin flip, whichever way the coin lands. but poker math plays an important role in determining a poker play. sometimes the lady luck casts bad beats on you, but most times with the correct poker math play, you will actually profit in the long run.
speaking of coin flips, here an illustration: let's say i flip a coin and you call head and bet $1. if you are correct, you win $1 profit. if you're wrong, you lose your $1 bet. in poker betting parlance, this is called a 1 to 1 odds, or bet $1 to win $1, or 50% money odds.
now the coin flip has 50/50 chance, i.e. 50% odds, of landing either head or tail. if i flip the coin 100 times and you call head all 100 times, chances are the coin will land on head 50 times. which means that you will win 50 times and win $50, but lose 50 times and lose $50. put it differently, you will only break even.
side note: of course, in the real world, the result won't be as neat as 50-50. the result will, however, be close to 50-50; maybe as far as 45-55. if you don't believe me, flip a coin 100 times and see for yourself. in statistics (for you poker players who slept during Stat 101 class), this is called standard deviation and variance.
understanding all these, will you still play the $1 bet to win $1? surely i hope not, because it doesn't make much sense for you to play the $1 bet each coin flip since you are entering a 50% flip odds with a 50% money odds so you will only likely get even money or only win a little, or lost a little, on your bets in the long run.
now let's do this: if you are correct in calling the coin flips, your $1 bet will win $10, in other words a 10-to-1 odds. again, according to the math, in the long run if you keep betting on heads in all 100 coin flips, the likely result will be 50 heads, which will earn you $500. the other 50 times you're wrong, you only lose $50. will you play? hellz to da yeah.
i keep underlining "in the long run" because it's very important in poker. the math breaks down if i were to offer you ONLY ONE coin flip. but alas, poker is all about the bigger picture. your AA will win heads up against KK 82% of the time. AA is a 89%-11% favorite against 72o. sure you'd steam like crazy when your pocket aces got cracked, because guess what?, there is still 18% chance against KK and 11% against the measly 72o that your aces will still lose. but, again, the magic words: "in the long run", you will profit playing AA. so don't get tilted. dat shit cray wtf, but shit happens - mathematically.
(i will say though, if you still hang on to AA after the board shows, for instance, a likely flush for your opponent, then you deserve the stupid loss. i know it's aces, but when you're beat you're beat. here's a tip: a good fold is as important in poker as getting good cards. fold that shit, bro.)
so this is how poker differs from straight gambling. with the combination of pot odds, implied odds, betting patterns, betting sizes, opponent's ranges, opponent's tells, &etc, you can cobble together a fairly accurate estimation of whether you are winning or losing and proceed from there.
so let's proceed here, shall we? this is how i approach NL Hold'em poker math:
one in (about) nine
when you are dealt a pocket pair, there's a 10.5% chance of you hitting a set - i.e. three-of-kind - or better on the flop. that's about 1 in 9, or 8-to-1 odds.
(actually it's 1 in 9.5 or 8.5:1, but for simplicity sake, let's make it 1 in 9. also, i did say hit a set or better on the flop. the odds of flopping only a set is 11.76% or 7.5-to-1. also, in this discussion, i'm focusing only on the flop and not turn+river. but for those interested, the odds of making a set going to the river, after missing the flop, is about 8%.)
anyway, that means you will have to consider the pot odds before playing those small-to-mid pocket pairs in order to profit off the set in the long run. for instance, if the BB is $1, you need to see at least $8 already in the pot from the limpers to justify putting your $1 in. all poker pros and all poker books i've read advocate this line of thinking.
the reason is math. there's a 1 in 9 chance of you making a set. put it differently, in the nine times you are dealt with small pocket pair, you'll likely hit a set only once. let's say in a $1 BB game you get small pocket pairs nine times and you limp in $1 every time.eight of those times you will miss your set, and likely lose to whatever, so you fold. you just lost $8. the one time you hit a set, you better win the $8 back or else you end up losing money in total playing the small pair. that's why you need the 8:1 pot odds ratio.
of course, the real reason of set-mining is the huge implied odds. most poker players play small pocket pairs, even though the pot odds is smaller than 8:1, because the set is well-disguised that opponents with top pair top kicker or two pairs will bet aggressively on the flop+turn+river, thus earning profit at the end. poker pros even suggest be willing to call up to 7BB raise with small pocket pairs because of the implied odds factor.
notice that i mentioned you hit your set one time out of nine. i didn't mention which of the nine. your set could hit the first time you are dealt the pair, or the fifth time, or the ninth time. so here is where i primarily differ with the opinions of poker professionals. (again, they are the pro, not me - so, a thousand apologies.)
let's talk math statistics some more for a moment. again, using the coin flip as an example, the coin will land 50 times on heads/tails after 100 flips. the coin will not land head, then tail, then head, then tail, then head-tail-head-tail-head-tail and so on. the real world doesn't operate as tidy as that. in total, yes, 100 coin flips will go 50-50. but it may go 5 heads in a row, it may go 10 tails in a row, but in the long run, it evens out to 50-50.
here's my point: if i flip the coin 100 times, and holy fuck the coin lands on heads-heads-heads 50 times in a row (not very likely, i know, but stay with me here) then you better start betting on tails the next 50 times. because, in the long run, it will even out to 50-50.
going back to the 1 in 9 chance of hitting a set, let's say i am dealt pocket deuces 9 times. let's also say i won't play it and muck the 2-2 preflop the first 7 times. i keep noticing that in those seven times i folded, the set didn't hit at all, had i played the deuces. knowing this, will i play 2-2 the next two times, even if i get raised into?
you betcha. because the math indicates that a set will hit very soon.
in online NLHE tournaments, especially when i'm playing tight in the early rounds, i will fold these small pairs (unless i can limp in, knowing i won't be raised by the tight players on my left, or if i'm calling min-raise from the big blind) and i will pay attention to see if my trips would've otherwise hit on the flop. if none did several times, then i'll start playing those baby pairs coz a set is comin' baby! i'm good enough a poker player that i can go deep in a tournament, which means that i get to see plenty of hands and will be dealt more than nine pocket pairs per tournament to wait for set-mining opportunities.
in a nutshell, hitting a set is not easy. 10.5% is a very small number. 89.5% of the time you will miss the set. it often surprises my poker buddies when i fold pocket pair preflop out of position. the way i see it, i save money folding the small-to-mid pocket pairs because i'm not chasing the set yet, which is the only reason to play those. sure, i'm might sometimes miss the set, but i'll take my chances.
in conclusion, if you play those itty-bitty pairs to hit a set, count to nine. that's the magic number.
(it still needs to be said, again, that just because you hit your set that one time out of nine, it still doesn't mean you've already won the pot. a flush can beat you, so can a straight, and so on. be aware of the flop/board texture and the your opponent's bet/behavior. Daniel Negreanu in WSOP 2012 Main Event held pocket aces and flopped trip aces, and lost to a nut straight. your set can also be beaten by a higher set, which sucks big fat balls, but that only happens once in 167 times. moral of the story: if you go to an all-in war with a set on the flop, know there's still a tiny itsy-bitsy window that your set will get crushed, so be brave and go on clashing heads, and if you lose, then it's just not your day. but if you slowplay the set all the way to the river and the board shows likely straight or flush, then you must consider very carefully if your trips are beaten.)
one in three (plus one in nine)
you will be dealt suited cards about once every four times (24%). not saying ace-high suited cards, not saying suited connectors - just any two random suited cards. just because you get ace suited cards, try not to get too excited coz you get random suited cards once out of four times anyway, the ace is just bonus.
for those of you interested in playing for the flush, here are the numbers:
- when you are dealt suited cards, the chances of you hitting a flush on the flop is 0.84%. that's about 8 out of 1000 times, so it's quite a rare event. hopefully you'll flop the flush with the nuts. otherwise pray that nobody having a higher flush card by hitting the suit on turn/river.
- you will hit a 3-card flush (needs runner-runner) 41.6% of the time. so it's fairly common that your suited hole cards hit only one card of the same suit, and i'm sure you've seen it a lot personally. the odds to complete a backdoor flush going to river, though, is a tiny 4.2%.
- 4-card flush draw is what we're really interested in: 10.9% to flop a flush draw, 35% to make flush by going all the way to river card.
so every time you get suited cards, remember the numbers: 9 and 3. one in nine to flop a flush draw, one in three of those draws to complete the flush.
i play suited cards in a, well, calculated manner. i'm aiming for the big flush after all, so i'll play an Axs or Kxs if it's cheap to enter the pot. i will also play suited connectors for the flush and straight possibilities, again if it's cheap. AKs is a raising hand anyway simply because of its strength. if i'm entering to steal the pot with (possibly high and/or painted) suited cards raises because i sense weakness, then i'm relying on pre/postflop play to out-muscle my opponent, and not necessarily to hit draws, although flopping the draws would be a nice bonus. but, for example, if i see that my folded 72s actually hit a four-card flush draw, and for the love of god the flush actually completes at river/turn, then i can fairly much surmise that i won't hit flush in the next 100+ hands and so i will fold those Ace-rag suited the rest of the night.
(again, just because flush hit... yada yada... that doesn't mean... yada yada.. you get it.)
one in two
a pair versus connected overcards has nearly 50-50 chance, or one in two, that it is virtually a coin-flip. it's a race that you will often see in poker tournaments, especially at final tables. an AKs vs 7-7 is a 49%-51% race; AKo is a slightly worse 46% dog against 7-7's 54%.
try this experiment at home: give yourself an AKs and your imaginary heads-up opponent a 7-7, then run the flop turn river 100 times. you will see what a coin flip this is, and that the result will be close to 49-51. (or if you're lazy, then run it 20 times and you'll see that 7-7 holds up about 11 times out of 20. also note: if you give your self AKs and your opponent a QQ then the QQ will likely win a little more than 51% of the time simply because the queens take away your outs to complete a broadway.)
if you recall the set-mining discussion above, the same idea follows: if i'm holding small/mid-pair and i noticed the high overcards at the table have manage to hit the board a few times already, then i won't mind raising preflop or shoving with my pair. vice-versa, if pocket underpairs have been holding up and win a few times in a row, i am fairly confident that my AK will hit the board and i will push/call all-in. i will do this especially when i see tight small stacks moving all in, knowing that they will likely shove with a mid pair or any ace.
in poker tournaments, as the saying goes, you need to win one of these race. so go in when the math leans on your side.
one in three (or two in three, whichever way you see it)
when you are dealt any unpaired hole cards, you will flop at least a pair 32.4% (or 1 in 3) of the time. what that means is that one time out of three you will hit something on the flop. for example, you could play 72o and paired your deuces. but more importantly, though, it also means that 2 times out of 3, you will miss the flop.
and here's another important fact: your opponent also has a 2 times in 3 of drawing blank on the flop. just because he raised you preflop, it doesn't mean he connected at the flop. remember this.
also note that you need to only raise (assuming standard 2.5BB raise) and win uncontested pot two times out of three to profit. for example, in a $2 BB game, if you raise to $5 twice and everybody folds, you win $6 ($2 BB and $1 SB twice each). the third time you raise $5 and fold to someone's reraise, that nets you a $1 profit. remember this, especially when you are at a tight table.
this is why position is important in poker. of course, if you are the player to act first, you can fire a probe bet or a c-bet or check-raise to see where you are, but the information is easier (and cheaper) gathered when you are the last to act. but you know this already, you poker savvy you.
but here is where i interpret the 1-in-3 rule in a another different way: the odds of my opponent being dealt any pocket pair is about 6%, the odds of him being dealt suited cards is 24%. so about 1 in 3 times my opponent will get attractive hands he wants to play with, but 2 out of 3 hands he will get lousy hole cards and muck them.
so i pay close attention to the two or three players behind (or left of) me and the two players before me. when i have the button/cut-off position, i will be interested to see if/how the small and big blinds play their hands. if they do play, i will hazard a guess that in the next orbit they will most probably get bad cards, so i'll raise them with any two cards if nobody else raise. same goes when i have the big blind and i see the button limping or raising a likely valid raise/reraise (not position raise) then i'll target him the next time around. in both situation, if they call my raise, i will keep in mind that 2 out 3 times they won't connect anyway.
the bad news is this method helps only in playing against tight-passive players and there're no raises prior to your action. loose-agg players are just too goddamn unpredictable and they seem to always enter the pot. but the good news is most players are tight passive players and the loose-aggressives will back down when you push back if you can catch some good spots (and cards).
one in whatever
i usually give myself a handicap of one bad beat per poker game. bad beat means bad beat. it means my flush loses to a higher flush or boat. it means my trip aces are cracked, or my straight gets busted. my AKs missing the board isn't a bad beat. it's fucked up bad luck is what it is, but it's a coin flip that loses. if my top pair top kicker gets spanked, that isn't a bad beat.
bad beat is when your opponent is drawing to one or two outs against your very strong hand, and he still catches it. of course i'd be upset, but i try not to tilt. if you recall, AA against 72o is still only has 11% of getting cracked. losing those strong hands sucks, but you know what, i know the rest of night i'm likely safe from horrendous bad beats.
this is why i usually play small ball poker in early rounds of poker games. when i get a bad beat, i will only lose minimum. after that, knowing a bad beat is likely gone and be done with, i'l start betting aggressively for maximum profit.
final thoughts: my method of poker relies heavily, of course, on being able to at least see the flop - which is an available option at my weekly poker games. in online tournaments, however, especially in very early and very late stages, there are often all-in shoves with no calls and i don't get to see the flop. so i have to make an educated guess as to whether, for instance, my pair hit a set or not. (likely not, but we'll never know.)
and these, humbly, are the ways of my poker play.
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home